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She’s not flashy or charismatic, but Ana Bailão may well be the only candidate to pose a serious challenge to front-runner Olivia Chow in the Toronto mayoral race.
Indeed, election day is shaping up as a possible Bailão-vs.-Chow showdown.
With just over three weeks left before voters go to the polls on June 26, the latest polls suggest Chow continues to hold a wide lead over all other candidates, including Bailão.
Bailão has placed second to Chow in several polls, with her support as high as 20 per cent of decided voters. However, in other polls she often lands in a tightly packed group with Mark Saunders, Josh Matlow, Mitzie Hunter, Brad Bradford and Anthony Furey.
For her part, Bailão says she’s the “only alternative” to Chow, telling voters she’s a “pragmatic” negotiator, a consensus-builder who can find common ground between residents, labour, business, Queen’s Park and Ottawa.
Like Chow and the other major candidates, she has detailed proposals on everything from affordable housing to transit, public safety, economic development and more.
Critically, though, of all the candidates in the trailing pack, Bailão appears to have the most room to grow in the closing days of this election. That’s because she has key advantages over her opponents that position her best to break away from the pack and chase down Chow. They include:
- Fundraising: Bailão reportedly has raised more money than any other candidate, including Chow. Money is needed for advertising, lawn signs, call centres and campaign staff. In the next few days she will launch a massive advertising blitz, expected to cost some $700,000, aimed at portraying herself as a steady, hard-working politician with rock-steady values.
- Endorsements: Bailão has collected an impressive list of endorsements from sitting councillors, former mayors Barbara Hall and Art Eggleton and major labour unions, including CUPE Local 416, which represents some 8,000 city of Toronto outside workers and LiUNA Local 183, a major construction union.
- Campaign team: She has an experienced team that has developed a plan to carry her right through to voting day. They include veteran Liberal organizer Tom Allison; Bob Richardson, co-chair of John Tory’s first campaign; and Patrick Harris, who was Tory’s 2022 campaign manager. Controversial pollster Nick Kouvalis is also on her team, which distresses some supporters. But insiders claim Kouvalis is primarily involved in get-out-the-vote strategies, not policy development.
- John Tory factor: Her campaign team is still hoping Tory will endorse her, which would be a huge boost for her chances. Bailão was deputy mayor to Tory, but he’s insisted he will stay out of the election.
- Getting out the vote: Bailão’s team has prepared an incredible ground-game to get supporters to the polls. Only Chow, with support from NDP volunteers, will be able to match her. Bailão is relying on her trade union and Liberal backers to organize GOTV drives across the city.
Still, Bailão needs two key things to happen to greatly improve her chances of defeating Chow.
First, Chow must start to falter in the polls. Any sign that she may have peaked too soon and that her support is “wide, but shallow” could result in voters drifting away from her in the final stage of the campaign, much as they did in the 2014 election when Chow finished in third place.
Second, Bradford or Hunter must drop out of the race. Both are competing with Bailão for the centrist, Liberal vote. Having so many candidates fighting for the same type of voter hurts Bailão’s chances to break from the pack.
Bradford is seen as more likely to quit, given his poor poll results and the fact his wife gave birth several days ago to their second child. If that happens, much of his support would go to Bailão.
Voters will have lots of options when they cast their ballots. Ana Bailão may be right when she says that, more than any other candidate, she offers voters the best chance of challenging Chow.