New poll says Olivia Chow widened her lead over rivals as advance voting set to start in mayoral election

With Torontonians about to start casting ballots for a new mayor in advance voting, former NDP MP Olivia Chow is still growing her commanding lead, according to a new Forum Research poll for the Toronto Star.

The Friday survey of 1,032 Torontonians gave Chow the support of 38 per cent of decided voters, up four percentage points from the previous week.

Chow’s upward trajectory, while distant competitors struggle to get traction, is apparent in the Star’s mayoral poll tracker by Vox Pop Labs which crunches Forum data along with polls from Mainstreet Research and Liaison Strategies surveys for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council.

The new Forum poll found Chow being trailed by: former police chief Mark Saunders with 13 per cent; Coun. Josh Matlow with 12 per cent; former Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey with 10 per cent; former councillor Ana Bailão with eight per cent; former Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter with seven per cent; and Coun. Brad Bradford with five per cent.

Eight per cent of respondents chose one of the other 95 candidates. Eighteen per cent said they were undecided. The margin of error for the interactive voice response survey is plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Chow, a former longtime Metro and Toronto councillor and MP who lost the 2014 mayor’s race to John Tory — who resigned in February, triggering the race to replace him — appears to be dominating the left side of the crowded race.

And, after 13 years of centrist or right-leaning rule, voters appear to want change.

“Chow is breaking ahead from the rest,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff. “It may be tough for anyone else to catch up.”

Other candidates’ efforts to tarnish her appeal in recent debates have backfired, Bozinoff said. “She’s taken the brunt of the attacks and handled it really well,” he said, making her seem more, rather than less, mayoral.

Saunders, a conservative, appears to be bleeding support to Furey, an executive of the hard-right True North media platform, Bozinoff said, while centrists Hunter and Bailão are losing left-leaning support to Chow.

“Overall, there is a polarization, a melting of the (political) centre,” he said.

Polling since April has shown Chow growing support while Matlow, a 13-year city councillor and fellow progressive with Liberal ties, seems to have lost steam.

Chow rivals, however, told the Star they believe they can beat her as election signs and advertising help Torontonians tune into the election. There are few indications, at the moment, of any candidate consolidation into an “anybody but Chow” movement.

Advance voting starts Thursday as candidates make their final election platform pitches before the June 26 election.

They’ll have chances at three events this week — a “Black mayoral town hall” Tuesday evening; a noon Wednesday debate focused on issues facing older Torontonians; and a Thursday evening “discussion with Toronto’s qualified candidates” in Etobicoke.

A Mainstreet Research poll conducted early last week gave Chow the support of 32 per cent of decided voters, followed by Bailão with 16 per cent, 12 per cent for Saunders, 10 per cent for Matlow, nine per cent for Furey, seven per cent for Hunter, and four per cent each for Bradford and policy analyst Chloe Brown.

The margin of error of that automated telephone interview survey of 1,100 residents was considered to be plus or minus three percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

David Rider is the Star’s City Hall bureau chief and a reporter covering city hall and municipal politics. Follow him on Twitter: @dmrider