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Maybe more.
Ontario’s Liberals have now one-upped ― if not three-upped ― their NDP rivals in the leadership sweepstakes.
The New Democrats mustered but one candidate in their uncontested contest to succeed the unsuccessful Andrea Horwath. A competition without competitors, it was over before it began, quickly forgotten because there was nothing to remember except the foregone conclusion:
Marit Stiles was acclaimed as NDP leader, even if she is not yet widely acclaimed as a premier-in-waiting.
By contrast and to their credit, the Liberals have now mustered a genuine four-way race, final roster to be confirmed. The competition is impressive not merely in quantity but quality, waged on questions of both ideology and winnability.
This could get interesting. The NDP race was unwatchable because there was nothing to see.
But there’s another reason to pay attention to the Liberal contest: This race might be the only hope for those who wish to defeat Doug Ford’s Tories.
New Democrats have twice demonstrated that they can’t. Running against two eminently beatable premiers with heavy baggage ― first Kathleen Wynne and then Doug Ford ― the NDP missed two historic chances to win power when the stars were in alignment.
Instead, New Democrats fell to third in the popular vote in 2022, overtaken by the Liberals in the last election (except where it counted, in the seat count). The departure of the indefatigable but defeated Steven Del Duca as leader ― after healing a battered party and clearing its debt ― opened the door to a successor who can lead a newly rebuilt and rehabilitated party out of the penalty box.
But who?
All the attention and oxygen has accrued to the presumed front-runner, Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie. In fairness, she was neither the first nor the last out of the gate ― in fact, technically, she has only opened the door without taking the final step.
Crombie’s liftoff, such as it is, is limited to launching an “exploratory committee” to gauge interest in her leadership. But the exploratory is merely transitory, a fig leaf for an incipient if not insurgent candidate who has been testing the waters for months.
She will likely make it official in a matter of weeks, but has already shaken up the race ― not least with her occasionally shaky pronouncements about moving the party from left-of-centre to potentially right-of-centre. Ideology is not meteorology ― it ought not to turn with the seasons nor shift direction like the prevailing winds.
The mayor’s musings on policies opened the door to fresh criticism from her rivals. This race isn’t over, which is why they are putting their money where their mouths are, laying down the $100,000 deposit that is a condition of entry in the contest.
Collectively, they lack Crombie’s name recognition. But their credentials are hard to ignore:
- MP Nate Erskine-Smith stepped up and signed up first. An Oxford-educated litigator, he made his name in the federal Liberal caucus by publicly dissenting from party policy. Now, rather than toe the party line, he wants to lead from the front of the line provincially. But can a maverick vegan from the Beaches go toe to toe with Ford (who eschews red meat) beyond the 416? Not yet 40, he is calling for generational change while calling out Crombie’s ruminations on ideological change.
- MPP Ted Hsu was next up last month, putting down his deposit and getting his name out. A Princeton-educated physicist and former federal parliamentarian from Kingston and the Islands, he has yet to gain traction or recognition despite his considerable talents. A diffident speaker, he might have difficulty going head to head with a populist Ford on the campaign trail.
- MP Yasir Naqvi was the latest out of the gate, formally declaring last week. A former provincial party president, MPP and attorney general, he lost his Ottawa Centre seat in 2018 only to reclaim it federally in 2021. A trade lawyer before entering politics (his law degree is from the University of Ottawa), he would be the only candidate burdened by the baggage of the old Liberal dynasty under Wynne and Dalton McGuinty.
The elephant in the room for Naqvi and Erskine-Smith, who think themselves worthy of leadership provincially, is why they were never deemed worthy of cabinet while the Liberals have held power federally. Tough question.
Two rookie MPPs from neighbouring ridings are flirting with running: Adil Shamji (Don Valley East) is an emergency room physician who has launched an exploratory committee without certainty; Stephanie Bowman (Don Valley West) is a former bank vice-president with strong fiscal credentials who, like Crombie, is inclined to take the party closer to the centre.
Like her rivals, Crombie had a life and career before politics. With an MBA from the Schulich School, she worked as an entrepreneur and consultant. Crombie was an opposition Liberal MP from 2008-11 before running for city council in 2011 and becoming mayor in 2014.
Each candidate has a good story to tell. Only one of them will have the winning storyline that can sell.
For all their differences ― in education and vocation, geography and ideology ― they share a single overarching challenge: Who qualifies as the dragon slayer capable of defeating a populist and polarizing premier, by connecting with voters directly while competing with Ford’s proven ability to resonate with the electorate?
Correction — June 8, 2023: This story has been updated. A previous version said Ted Hsu was never considered for a Liberal cabinet role while the party has held power, federally. But Hsu was an opposition MP from 2011 to 2015, before the federal Liberals came to power.