An inside look at how a short race and a crowded field turned Toronto’s election into a dash for donor cash

When Coun. Stephen Holyday weighed whether to run for mayor of Toronto, he consulted experts on how much he would need from donors to fund a credible campaign and was told “about $1 million — and that’s just to start.”

That’s a lot more than the $15,639.98 he spent last fall to be easily re-elected as Etobicoke Centre councillor. The mayoral fundraising challenge was a key factor in opting to not join the race to replace John Tory, said Holyday, who priced a single citywide literature mail out at about $250,000.

“It’s a pretty exceptional undertaking that I ultimately chose not to go through,” said the conservative councillor who has endorsed ex-police chief Mark Saunders.

A record number of Torontonians are, however, running for mayor and the most prominent are competing for donor dollars to pay for everything from office rentals to campaign staff to advertising to lawn signs and pizza parties for volunteers.

Fundraising in the mayoral byelection is unusual and challenging, campaign insiders told the Star, for two reasons — the campaign’s brevity, at less than three months, and the number of high-profile candidates fishing in the same donor pool.

The task is enormous. Officials from leading campaigns, most of whom spoke on background for competitive reasons, said their experienced fundraisers aim to rake in between $1.5 million and $2 million over the 12-week election — and every dollar is needed to win on June 26.

The byelection spending limit — about $1.66 million, plus fundraising and other expenses allowed on top of that — is unchanged from a regular six-month election period.

Being the best fundraiser doesn’t guarantee the mayor’s chair, they said, but raising anything less than $1 million makes a win almost impossible given the costs of pitching a candidate through multiple channels to 1.9 million electors. No politician in Canada will be elected with more direct votes than the next mayor.

“I would think that a serious competitive campaign will spend $2 million in this election — and the winner of this election for sure will spend two million,” said an official on the campaign of a candidate riding high in the polls.

But while the six top-polling candidates all appear to have a shot at winning in this early stage of the battle, it’s extremely unlikely all will be able to raise the maximum allowed. They are fighting over a pool of much less than $12 million.

Last fall’s election saw the top three candidates raise a total of $2.34 million, more than $2 million of it by Tory, the winner. In the 2014 mayoral election, Toronto’s most recent with no incumbent, when the spending limit was lower, Tory, the winner, and runners-up Doug Ford and Olivia Chow collectively raised $5.7 million.

“Everybody’s fishing in the same pool, with a shortened time frame, and there’s less to go around,” said an official with another top campaign. “It doesn’t seem like the top six campaigns are having trouble raising money now but that might change later in the campaign.”

Eric McGoey, manager of Coun. Josh Matlow’s mayoral campaign, said his candidate’s consistent high ranking in opinion polls is helping bring in donor dollars but admits he was worried in April.

“I was stressed out about whether we could raise enough money to pay all our bills at the end of the first month,” McGoey said, but they cleared that hurdle and he’s pleased with progress so far.

Matlow’s progressive platform doesn’t make him the top choice for developers and lobbyists most likely to give the $2,500 maximum donation to a single candidate, McGoey said.

“You can do a tonne with volunteers and good ideas,” McGoey said. “We’re not going to be exclusively dependent on that — we’ll have paid staff and lawn signs and an office — but I think when we write a post-mortem for this election it’s not going to be as simple as the person won because they raised the most money.”

Chow, who raised $1.9 million for her 2014 mayoral bid, is expected to raise the maximum or close to it this time. A source in former city councillor Ana Bailão’s campaign, which includes many past members of Tory’s election team, said she hit $1 million in donations Friday. That would put her at the front of the fundraising pack even if she lags in some opinion polls

Officials with the campaigns of Coun. Brad Bradford, Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter and former police chief Mark Saunders all report healthy fundraising.

They’ll need it. Advertising buys alone could total $700,000. Lawn signs have jumped due to inflation and most campaigns expect to hire more than 20 paid staff.

Mayoral candidate Celina Caesar-Chavannes laughs loudly when told how much some of her rivals are raising.

“I’m hoping to raise $40,000 or $50,000,” said the former Liberal and independent MP. “I think I will be getting a campaign office, signs, some social media ads. That’s it.”

While big campaigns host fundraising events and use telephone town halls and social media tools, Caesar-Chavannes, who is promising voters a “sustainable and thriving city,” is asking each donor to find 10 more to help fund her campaign.

Asked how much he is raising for his mayoral campaign Brian Graff, who says his priority is to get the federal government to reduce immigration numbers to help ease demand on housing, replies “none at the moment.”

“I believe in democracy and I have a lot to contribute but … essentially it’s a foregone conclusion unless you have $1 million,” Graff said.

Alan Broadbent, chair and founder of Maytree Foundation, which fights for systemic change to alleviate poverty and strengthen communities, donated to Chow’s 2014 mayoral campaign. This time he contributed to Bailão’s bid after working with her on affordable housing initiatives.

Broadbent expressed surprise he has never been asked directly for a mayoral donation, adding he is open to giving to another candidate this byelection.

“It’s important to keep your powder dry in the final stretch,” he said, “in case there’s somebody you really don’t want in there and you want to help the person most likely to beat them, or somebody you do like just needs a little boost.”

David Rider is the Star’s City Hall bureau chief and a reporter covering city hall and municipal politics. Follow him on Twitter: @dmrider