When choosing expert sources, conduct matters

When COVID-19 first hit over two years ago, news reporters with the Star and other media outlets scrambled to get information — hard data on what was then a mysterious and fast-moving virus.

Out of this need for speedy, reliable numbers and facts to answer questions — how quickly COVID was spreading, where and to whom — grew an interesting new role.

Citizen experts stepped into the breach and began crunching COVID numbers on their own, disseminating their calculations to the public and journalists through social media platforms like Twitter.

One of those individuals, Ryan Imgrund, lists himself on his Twitter page as a biostatistician, biostatistics being the science of gathering, analyzing and interpreting data utilizing statistical theory in the pursuit of improving health science and solving biological problems.

Imgrund provides daily COVID analysis on his page and is self-employed.

His work on COVID data has been so popular that he has amassed over 85,000 Twitter followers, and he became a go-to source for media outlets including the Star.

But this newspaper stopped using him as a source last year. Some other media outlets seem to have done the same.

Why?

Imgrund’s tweets toward others became too aggressive, one Star reporter who had previously used Imgrund’s data told me in an interview recently.

“As soon as we saw that, we just said let’s not use him anymore,” the reporter said.

(I called Imgrund, who lives in Sudbury, on his cell this week to get his comments for this column. He hung up right away. I also sent him a text asking for an interview. He didn’t respond).

The Star began using his data in June 2020, as COVID was raging worldwide.

At that time Imgrund, then a teacher, was head of the science department at Sacred Heart Catholic High School in Newmarket.

That April, he had started monitoring the reproduction number — the average number of additional COVID infections stemming from one infection — for the Southlake Regional Health Centre, a hospital in Newmarket.

One of the Star reporters who used Imgrund’s data says he was very helpful at the time, in large part due to difficulties getting COVID data from traditional sources like the provincial Ministry of Health.

“In the absence of official government data, especially at the beginning of the pandemic … citizen data analysts began to collect publicly available data and analyze it themselves. Many of them fulfilled a very important role because there was such a lack of information. (Imgrund) was one of a number of people we were aware of who was doing this,” the reporter said.

One story the Star published centring on Imgrund’s work in late 2020 reported that Imgrund had calculated the risk of coming in contact with someone who had COVID, based on which part of Toronto you lived in.

Imgrund calculated risk percentages using numbers that included COVID case data released from the city of Toronto by postal code.

The reporter I spoke to at the Star said overall, Imgrund’s data was sound. Imgrund has also been a strong advocate for getting vaccinated.

But a senior Star reporter — who has interviewed Imgrund in the past — says Imgrund has repeatedly stepped over the line on Twitter in his dealing with others, especially those who might question his work.

For example, in late 2020 he was criticized for calling a female journalist of colour “angry” on Twitter, after she took issue with his tweet urging that children aged 7 to 12 be returned to online learning. She said he neglected to consider how this would impact essential workers.

And late last year, he received condemnation after an Ottawa critical care doctor tweeted that due to a surge in COVID cases, Quebec was “moving in the opposite direction” by reintroducing curfews, closing restaurants and delaying a return to school. Imgrund tweeted that the doctor was more interested in “drumming up more patients” for his ICU.

I agree with his critics who say these tweets can be viewed as toxic.

(To further complicate this case, Imgrund, now a former teacher, was accused a few weeks ago by Ontario’s College of Teachers of inappropriate behaviour involving five female students at his former Newmarket high school. A notice of hearing posted on the college’s website alleges that he “abused a student or students psychologically or emotionally … sexually … and/or engaged in sexual abuse of a student or students.” In messages with a member of the media, Imgrund said he has had “zero” inappropriate relationships with students. The college’s allegations have not been tested.)

Nicole MacIntyre, a managing editor at the Star, told me while there was no “decree,” senior editors and reporters did raise concerns and agreed to stop using Imgrund as a source last year because of his conduct on social media.

The lesson I take from all of this is that credibility isn’t just about providing solid research and data.

Donovan Vincent is the Star’s Public Editor and based in Toronto. Reach him by email at publiced@thestar.ca or follow him on Twitter: @donovanvincent