UFC 289 Oliveira vs. Dariush picks: Expect a tightly-contested

Oliveira, Charles - Dariush, Beneil — Jun 10, 22:00

Charles Oliveira looks to get back into the winner’s circle this Saturday at UFC 289 in Vancouver.

The pre-fight narrative: Oliveira’s 11-fight win streak was snapped last October by Islam Makhachev at UFC 280. The Brazilian MMA icon will now have to deal with Beneil Dariush, who’s on quite the heater of his own. Still, we’ll back Oliveira to win and are also taking the over on 2.5 rounds.

Check out our Oliveira vs. Dariush picks for the UFC 289 fight on June 10.

UFC odds as of 12:06 p.m. ET on 06/08/2023.

UFC 289 Oliveira vs. Dariush picks

Best Bet : Fight to start Round 3 (+106)

Oliveira’s fights tend to be a spectacle — 30 of his 33 victories have come via finish — but we expect this one to go into at least the third round.

Dariush is one of the best defensive fighters in the lightweight division, owning a 58.0% significant strike defence to pair with and an 80.0% takedown defence. Each of his past three fights, all of which were wins, have gone to decision.

He beat Mateusz Gamrot, Tony Ferguson, and Diego Ferreira in those bouts and the latter two are more than capable strikers. Oliveira is good but not great on his feet and we think Dariush will be able to defend against his knockout power.

What really makes this fight intriguing is how good the pair are on the ground.

Dariush has four medals for the United States (three silver, one bronze) at the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship and Oliveira is a third-degree BJJ blackbelt and renowned as one of the best grapplers in UFC history.

There is a really solid chance the majority of this fight is contested on the mat and we expect that to result in a lot of time killing. This could very well end inside, considering the duo have 29 combined wins via submission, but we’re confident it won’t happen in the first two rounds.

Key stat: Oliveira and Dariush have each fought into the third round in half of their past six fights.

Quick Pick

Oliveira to win (+123) : Dariush is on an eight-fight win steak but we think people are too quick to forget how great Oliveira is. The Brazilian holds the UFC lightweight record for submission wins (10) and ranks third in finishes (13) and win streak (11).

And we can get him a plus-money? Sign us up.

Oliveira’s loss to Makhachev last year was certainly a setback but the Dagestani is a generational talent in his prime. We’re not talking down on Dariush here but Oliveira is one of the greatest to ever do it and we’ll back him on Saturday.

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