Nuggets vs. Heat prop bets, NBA Finals Game 4: Fade a slumping Michael Porter Jr.

On the quickest turnaround of the series, the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets square up for Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Jamal Murray has been an expert facilitator all series, and we’re backing him alongside Aaron Gordon in our plus-money best bet. We’re also fading the overall output of a slumping Michael Porter Jr., as well as Jimmy Butler’s steals prop.

Here are our top Nuggets vs. Heat prop bets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals on June 9.

NBA odds as of 1:10 p.m. on 06/08/2023.

Heat vs. Nuggets prop bets

Best Bet : Murray 7+ assists, Gordon 6+ rebounds (+102)

Piecing together a pair of alt lines, we’ve put together a plus-money wager that aligns with how Murray and Gordon have excelled in this series.

Murray and Jokic have beaten Miami over the head with a two-man, pick-and-roll game, and that has led to a boatload of assists for Denver’s point guard. He’s collected exactly 10 assists in each of the three NBA Finals games so far.

That’s definitely abnormal for Murray, who only recorded 10-plus assists in six of 65 games during the regular season, averaging 6.2 per game. He also hadn’t hit that mark in any playoff game prior to the Finals.

That’s why we’re going with a safer line here. Even if Miami alters its game plan against Murray, he should get on the north side of this number.

As for Gordon, a six-rebound night is something he’s made a habit of no matter who the opponent is. He’s grabbed at least six boards in 13 of 18 postseason games so far, and he averaged 6.6 rebounds during the regular season.

Key stat: Gordon has at least six rebounds in each of his past four games, which includes all three Finals matchups.

Porter under 17.5 pts/reb/ast (-112) : Porter’s disappearing act in Game 2 carried forward into Game 3, and we feel that makes him worthy of a fade on Friday.

On a playoffs-low 21 minutes, Porter shot 1-for-7 and finished with two points, seven rebounds and zero assists. He only attempted two 3-pointers, which matched his lowest total of the postseason.

In a whopping 43 minutes of action in Game 1, Porter posted 19 PRA to barely clear this line. He’s shooting 29.3% from the field over his past five games, and his recent minutes decline is a major concern.

Butler under 1.5 steals (-120) : Sadly, this is juiced up from its Game 3 price (+120), but we’re still jumping on board.

Butler snagged one steal in Game 1, and he’s been held without a steal in the two games since. He finished with one steal against the Nuggets in their lone matchup in Miami during the regular season, too.

Denver coughs up the fewest turnovers per game (11.6) among playoff teams, so this isn’t a surprise. Continue to fade Butler in this market.

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