NBA Finals Nugget vs. Heat Game 4 picks: Bet on the under in Miami

The Denver Nuggets reclaimed home-court advantage in the NBA Finals after their Game 3 victory.

The pregame narrative: The Miami Heat took a 15-point loss on Wednesday after shooting an ice-cold 37.0% from the field. We’re expecting scoring to come at a premium in Game 4, too, and are taking the under as a result.

Check out our Nuggets vs. Heat picks and odds for Game 3 of the NBA Finals on June 9.

NBA odds as of 1:43 p.m. on 06/08/2023.

Nuggets vs. Heat picks

Best Bet : Under 211 points (-113)

Miami’s method to winning this series — or any game for that matter — won’t be to beat Denver in a boat race. The Heat’s 111-108 Game 2 victory did go over this total, but we believe Erik Spoelstra’s team will try and turn this into a rock fight at home.

Holding the Nuggets to an average of 108 points per game this final has been impressive, relatively speaking. Denver owns the highest offensive rating this postseason (119.3), scoring the fourth-most points per game (114.8).

A lot of that has to do with Denver’s inability to score from deep. The team is shooting 24.3% from three so far and while that should get a little better, we don’t expect a huge change. Miami held the Boston Celtics to a 30.3 3-point percentage in the ECF (worst among the final four teams).

It’s also worth noting these teams are playing on one day of rest for the first time in this series. The under is 4-0 in Miami’s last four games playing on one day’s rest and is 4-1 in Denver’s last five games on one day’s rest.

Key stat: Six of Miami’s last seven games have gone under.

Heat +8.5 & Butler to hit 1+ three (-121) : The Heat may be outmatched but they’re a resilient group. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss and is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.

That said, the 3.5-point spread as of Thursday afternoon still feels a little dicey, so we’re going to buy five points.

Butler has hit a three in five straight games and is nice way to bring this play to palatable -121 odds.

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