Here’s how much earth Canada’s wildfires may scorch this year

As large swaths of the country burn during an unprecedentedly active spring wildfire season, Canadians are being warned there may be much worse on the horizon.

If fires continue to burn as they have, by the end of the season in August, the country could be looking at more scorched forest than has ever been recorded, officials from Natural Resources Canada said Monday.

It’s the result of a convergence of factors, including climate change delivering conditions conducive to more frequent and severe wildfires, and a couple of large-scale weather patterns literally fanning the flames.

Right now, there are significant fires burning in every single province and territory — barring Prince Edward Island and Nunavut — enough to make Natural Resources Canada’s fire map look like a multicoloured crime scene blood spatter chart.

Already this year, there have been 2,214 wildfires that have blackened more than 3.3 million hectares of Canadian wildland — more than five million football fields’ worth.

To put that into perspective, the 10-year average for this time of year is 1,624 fires and 254,429 hectares burned — about 13 times less than this year.

Fires in 2023 are equal to 71 per cent of the total burn for the 2014 season — the worst in the past 20 years — with three months still to go in the 2023 season.

There’s obviously a human cost as well. So far this year, fires have prompted some 120,000 people to evacuate in six provinces and territories. Of those, approximately 26,000 are still unable to return home.

It’s not just the burned hectarage that’s extraordinary, but its distribution, too, say experts.

Typically, in the spring fire season, the majority of Canada’s fires are skewed toward the western provinces. Seeing fires coast-to-coast as we see this year, say officials, is simply unprecedented.

It’s small wonder that that word — “unprecedented” — pops up with near monotonous regularity when politicians and experts speak on the country’s fire season.

“Over the last 20 years, we have never seen such a large area burned so early in the season,” said Yon Boulanger, a researcher for Natural Resources Canada. “This is partially because of climate change. We’re seeing trends toward increasing this burned area throughout Canada.”

And there are indications that this early tinder box-like trend could continue through the summer.

Forecasts for June project the warm and dry conditions that have made the spring so flammable will continue through the month — and through most of the summer — creating a higher-than-normal potential for wildfires through most of the country.

In fact, said Richard Carr, Natural Resources Canada’s fire danger forecasting expert, we’re looking at similar weather conditions to 1989, the worst year for wildfires in the past six decades, when 7.5 million hectares burned.

“We’ve actually been getting the worst of both a La Niña and an incoming El Nino, which is starting to develop over the summer,” he said. Notably, researchers earlier this month held Australia’s 2019-20 wildfires to blame for the strong La Niña weather patterns, the effects of which are just now beginning to abate.

“We’ve had a bit more heat than we’ve had during a typical La Niña spring, but it does tend to favour very windy, dry conditions. Previously the most area burned was in 1989 and (the El Nino) did very much the same thing that year. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if weather conditions are very similar to what we had in 1989.”

Though conditions will be ripe for a busy fire season, it’s important to note those forecasts predict risk levels for wildfires and not actually the fires themselves, said Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.

“With good fortune it is possible that the full extent of the risk does not materialize. But with preparation we must be ready for whatever happens this year and into the future. Every province and territory will need to be on high alert throughout this wildfire season,” he said.

During a Monday morning briefing, Wilkinson, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Public Safety Minister Bill Blair took turns touting measures the government — in addition to training and deploying some 500 Canadian Armed Forces troops to wildfire hot spots — is making to mitigate the upcoming and future fire seasons.

Chief among those is the WildFireSat, a dedicated wildfire observation satellite system — the first of its kind — expected to launch in 2029 at a cost of $170 million.

They also made note of a government investment of $284 million over five years for a Wildfire Resilient Futures Initiative designed to develop and promote wildfire prevention and mitigation protocols — such as FireSmart Canada — and research gaps in wildland fire knowledge.

Another $489 million is earmarked for the Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund, to help communities improve their resilience to wildfires.

“Our modelling shows that this may be an especially severe wildfire season throughout the summer,” said Trudeau. “We’re going to get through this together and our government will keep being there with whatever it takes to keep people safe.”

With 18 of the country’s wildfires directly affecting First Nations communities, Trudeau pointed to Ottawa’s efforts to train more community-based firefighters.

Last week, the federal government announced a Wildfire Training Fund, dedicated to the hiring and training of 300 Indigenous firefighters and 125 Indigenous fire guardians.

He also highlighted working with First Nations to train 130 wildland firefighters in Yukon and northern British Columbia, and working with Innu Nation in Newfoundland and Labrador to train community members there.

He also lauded the arrival of firefighters from other countries with whom Canada has reciprocal firefighting aid agreements.

The U.S. has sent 522 firefighters so far to help with wildfires here. South Africa, Australia and New Zealand have sent 215, 195 and 25, respectively. Those southern hemisphere countries have their fire seasons during Canada’s winter months. Ottawa is still in discussions on firefighting aid with Costa Rica — they could potentially send up to 60 firefighters.

Mexico — nearing the end of its own fire season — has no spare capacity to send firefighters at the moment, but those governments are in contact and Mexico may be able to send some firefighters in the coming weeks, said a Natural Resources Canada spokesperson.

And French President Emmanuel Macron announced that country would be sending 100 firefighters to Quebec.

“Wildland fires are inevitable in Canada, but climate change is making that challenge more serious,” said Canadian Forest Service director-general Michael Norton.

“We must take proactive steps to prepare for wildfires and to reduce risks before they occur.”