Astros vs. Blue Jays prop bets: Fade Guerrero in +132 parlay

Tonight’s prop bets for the Astros vs. Blue Jays matchup involve fading Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Framber Valdez and Yordan Alvarez.

The pregame narrative: Guerrero hasn’t been himself over the past three-ish weeks, and we’ve built a plus-money combo wager fading his hits prop alongside Valdez’s strikeout prop. Also, Alvarez is in a slump worth tailing and Bo Bichette has an enticing price to score.

Here are our Astros vs. Blue Jays prop bets for June 8.

MLB odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET on 06/08/23.

Astros vs. Blue Jays prop bets

Best Bet : Guerrero under 1.5 hits, Valdez under 5.5 Ks (+132)

From mid-May until now, Guerrero’s OPS has dropped 101 points (from .915 to .814). We’re looking for a way to capitalize on that free-fall.

A multi-hit bet is a big ask for Guerrero these days, as he’s batting .229 over his past 20 starts and has hit the under 17 times.

Also, Vladdy only has one hit in six plate appearances against Valdez.

Speaking of Valdez, fading his strikeouts prop is what pushes us to plus money.

Though Valdez has cleared this total in eight of 12 starts, he should have a tough time striking out the Jays. Toronto has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors (20.1%) and is averaging just 6.3 total strikeouts per game over its past 15.

Key stat: Valdez, who struck out two Blue Jays over 6.1 innings last year, owns just a 13.5% K-rate against the current lineup, per Baseball Savant.

Quick pick

Alvarez under 1.5 bases (-129) : By his outsized standards, Alvarez is in a bit of a slump right now.

Over his past 15 games, the designated hitter has an .829 OPS — but with a mere .180 batting average. He’s gone under 1.5 bases in 11 of those 15 games.

That type of slide often doesn’t last long for Alvarez, but it should continue tonight. He is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts against Berrios.

Bichette over 0.5 runs (+116) : Bichette has only scored twice in the past nine games, and he drove himself in both times.

That doesn’t bode well for our bet, but we’re more focused on how hot Toronto’s shortstop has been.

Since May 16, Bichette is batting .371 — with a .586 slugging percentage — over a 16-game stretch. That means he’s putting himself in a position to score at a solid clip, and from the No. 2 spot we’re interested in this plus-money price.

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